Thursday, November 6, 2014

The Lack of Predictability in the SAT and ACT

Every year during the college application process, juniors and seniors across the country stress over their scores on the SAT and ACT. Whether they test well or not, students worry since they know these scores are an important part of the college application process.  For many years now, researchers have questioned the fairness of these exams and whether these tests are valid in predicting how students will perform in college.  

Earlier this week at a conference in Tulsa, OK, for heads of school from across the Southwest, I heard a thought-provoking and fascinating presentation by William Hiss, former Dean of Admissions at Bates College in Lewiston, Maine. Hiss and his colleague, Valerie Franks, who also worked at Bates, conducted an extensive study of the cumulative GPAs of four-year college graduates that compared two groups—students who submitted test scores and students who did not (hereafter referred to as non-submitters)—at test-optional schools.  After years of studying a total of 33 institutions with 122,916 student records and nearly five million pieces of data, Hiss offered the following principal findings in his presentation:

1.    There were no significant differences in cumulative GPAs and four-year graduation rates between submitters and non-submitters. The difference in graduation rates is approximately six tenths of 1% and the difference in four-year college GPAs is five/one-hundredths of a point.
2.     Hard work and good grades in high school contribute a great deal to college academic success. In fact, the greatest predictor of college students’ grades is their high school grades.  
3.     Non-submitter populations are more likely to be first-generation college attendees, minority students, Pell Grant recipients, students with learning differences, and females. They are also more likely to be STEM majors at public universities.
4.     College admission decisions can be made just as reliably without looking at test results.
5.     There is a bimodal curve (the graphed curve is high at both ends with a dip in the middle) when looking at non-submitting students from a financial perspective.  Affluent students, as well as young men and women from lower socioeconomic groups, can be non-submitters of test results.  In some cases, this may be due to the strong college counseling available for students in independent and private schools that informs students about test-optional colleges and universities.
6.     Learning-differentiated students are more likely to apply to college as non-submitters. In addition, they may typically apply early, are just as likely to do well, and tend to graduate at a rate similar to students who submitted test results.
7.     Unfortunately, all too often, non-submitters may be commonly missed in consideration for merit awards despite having better GPAs in high school.
8.     For colleges, having test-optional policies in admissions can be beneficial since non-submitters expand applicant pools, broaden geographic appeal, and increase the number of early applications.  

Every year, an increasing number of colleges are becoming test-optional in admissions, and this bodes well for the future.  Hiss ended his presentation by pointing to the ethical dilemma of colleges counting on standardized testing results for decisions on admission and merit-based financial aid.  Is it morally right for those colleges who require testing to continue to rely so heavily on the ACT and SAT in the admissions process, particularly when this ends up keeping out many students who would in fact do well in college, but are all too often from under-represented groups in the college world?  We can take some solace in knowing that Bosque students are prepared academically for these standardized tests and will do well in college; however, we can hope that colleges will find more meaningful and authentic ways to gauge the strengths of their applicants.